So around the time Jenna Bush or Chelsea Clinton might consider presidential runs [that's 2030], 72 percent vehicles will rely entirely on the trusty internal combustion engine for power.
I wish (like the author John Gartner) that this estimate by US DOE's Energy Information Administration "will be as sound as their plan for post-war Iraq".
It is also interesting to read some comments posted.
David E Y Sarna
I am skeptical if the low estimate was based on any science; more likely, it is a political estimate to advance other agendas. I believe that the economic forces and technological advances with greatly reduce our reliance on fossil fuels by 2030.
Clearly the DOE didn't make it to the Alt Car Expo in Santa Monica last weekend. Returning from the expo I was left with the impression that the return of the electric car is surprisingly close. There were freeway-capable electric cars in there with range up to 300 miles on a charge ( http://www.universalelectricvehicle.com/ ). One electric SUV had a new type of batteries enabling 150 miles range and 10 minute recharges ( http://www.phoenixmotorcars.com/ ). And Honda's natural gas powered vehicle is for sale now, costs a bit over $20,000 can be fueled at various natural gas fueling stations on the road AND at home from your water heater connection ( http://automobiles.honda.com/models/model_overview.asp?ModelName=Civic+GX ).
Matt has a valid point.
Existing electric cars such as:
and Battery Technology:
make the possiblity of electric vehicles becoming common place a reality.
I'll miss the sound of the internal combustion engine.
Bottom line, when hybrids/Alternative energy are cheaper than their gasoline counterparts then more people will buy them.
I have to agree with Paul. See Plug-in Hybrid. At a saving of $0.10 per mile, it will take little time for electric car to achieve economic advantage over fossil-fuel powered car! AND remember, electric car and battery technology are at their early stages compared with internal combustion energy, the future is much greener than predicted by DOE!